The weather this weekend will be typical for this time of year. Warm and humid with a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms mostly occurring in the afternoon and evening. This past week, there were some isolated storms in the region, but none of them moved through my VA Beach neighborhood. There were even some severe storms in parts of the region which caused some damage. I’m hoping that we get a nice downpour today so everything gets a good watering. The recent intense heat has depleted a lot of moisture from the ground. Temperatures are supposed to be more seasonal today, topping out in the upper eighties to around 90. The wind direction plays a major role in our region when it comes to temperatures. A southeast (onshore) wind can hold temperatures down. A wind with a more westerly component (offshore) can bring very hot temperatures as we saw earlier in the week.

When it is this humid, it doesn’t take much of a trigger to cause showers/storms to develop. A very weak frontal boundary remains over the region and this should be enough to trigger some convection each day this weekend. However, pinpointing what areas get the rain is nearly impossible. Disturbances in the upper-atmosphere also trigger storms.

As it looks right now, the chance of rain should lessen as we head into Wednesday and Thursday.

The tropical Atlantic is starting to come to life as we have two areas that are being watched by the National Hurricane Center. Both are very far out in the Atlantic so there is plenty of time to watch them. As I mentioned in previous posts, early to mid-August is normally the time of year when the tropical cyclone activity normally ramps up. The Cape Verde season also is set to begin in a few weeks. These are the long-tracked storms that develop in the Eastern North Atlantic. They have time to gain strength as they head westward across the Atlantic. However, sometimes a storm that develops closer to the U.S. can be just as much of a threat. You should make sure you are prepared for any threat from the tropics.

That’s it for now. Thanks for reading and have a great weekend!

A broad upper-level high pressure ridge near the center of the North American continent is bringing heat to many areas of the country including the Mid-Atlantic States. As a result, we are going to see a continuation of the heat and high humidity for the next several days with only subtle day-to-day changes. The atmosphere should remain relatively stable despite temperatures well into the 90’s and dew points in the 70’s so the chances of thunderstorms during the afternoon hours will remain low, especially today (Saturday). Late tonight and early Sunday morning there is a slight chance of a stray shower or storm to our north as a very weak disturbance moves through that region. There could be an isolated storm each afternoon with all the heat and humidity around, but overall coverage should be very low.  As we head into the mid-week period, we should see a cold front approach. This should increase the chance of showers/storms by Wednesday or Thursday but it probably won’t be a high chance of rain. Also, the front may not make it through the region. However, with more clouds around, we should see slightly cooler temperatures later in the week.

Speaking of temperatures, we have reached the warmest time of year based on climatological averages. The average high temperature for today (July 23rd) in Norfolk, VA is 88 degrees. Over the next few days the average temperature will begin to drop, but only very slowly at first. Does that make you feel a little cooler? By the time we get to August 23rd, the average high will drop to 84 degrees.

The tropical Atlantic remains quiet for now. We are only a few weeks from the time of year when tropical cyclone activity normally begins to ramp up.

That’s it for now. Thanks for reading and have a great weekend. Try to stay cool out there!

A cold front approaching from the northwest will end the heatwave that we’ve been experiencing the past few days. However, we have one more hot day to endure today (Saturday). Then, on Sunday, temperatures will return to more normal levels and humidity levels will drop somewhat. Computer models are not forecasting much in the way of showers/storms from the cold frontal passage, but there could be an isolated shower/storm this evening out ahead of the cold front. Sunday should be dry, but as the front stalls to our south and a shortwave moves through, there could be another chance of a shower/storm Monday or Monday night. Heat and humidity will likely increase later next week along with a chance of a shower/storm.

As far as the tropics are concerned, the Atlantic Basin remains quiet. We’re about a month away from the time period when, on average, tropical activity normally starts to ramp up.

That’s it for now. Thanks for reading and have a great weekend!

Saturday was a perfect start to the July 4th weekend with plenty of sunshine. As meteorologists predicted, a frontal boundary and upper-level energy are bringing showers to much of the region this Sunday morning. Low pressure moving along the frontal boundary to our south will move offshore later today and the rain chances will go down somewhat as we go through the afternoon. However, there will still be a chance of a shower or storm, but any storm should be isolated in nature. Temperatures will be held down due to the clouds and an onshore wind. On Monday, Independence Day, we will remain in the unsettled weather pattern as another shortwave moves through and the frontal system remains close by. This could trigger severe weather Monday afternoon and evening so you should be on the lookout for that. It’s very difficult in a weather pattern like this to pin down the timing of the precipitation and exactly which areas will be impacted. As many of us head back to work on Tuesday, it appears that the weather pattern will transition to a drier and warmer one. Some computer models are indicating that temperatures could be well above normal later next week. That’s it for now. Enjoy the rest of the holiday weekend and please be safe!