Archive for May 9, 2015

TROPICAL STORM ANA MOVES VERY SLOWLY TOWARDS THE CAROLINA COASTLINE… ANA’S REMNANTS MAY BRING SOME RAIN ON MONDAY… WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER

Ana has transitioned from a sub-tropical storm to a tropical storm and its sustained winds are now up to 60 MPH. The storm has become more of a warm-core system with convection and thunderstorms forming around the center of circulation. The storm is expected to continue its very slow movement towards the Carolina coast. The only effects that we will see this weekend are just a slight chance of a shower. Those chances seem higher over our inland areas. As of this writing, there is a Dense Fog Advisory in effect across Hampton Roads. Dew points have come up due to the persistent onshore flow. The fog will dissipate later this morning. According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Ana will most likely weaken a bit as it moves over cooler shelf water closer to the coast. Keep in mind that it is only May, and so the ocean does not have the heat content that it has later in the season. However, the combination of the very warm Gulf Stream and nearly ideal atmospheric conditions have allowed the system to maintain itself and strengthen slightly overnight. A trough of low pressure to our west is expected to advance eastward on Monday and the southwesterly flow ahead of it should pick up Ana and move her remnants northeastward towards SE VA on Monday. How much rain we actually get here locally from Ana’s remnants is questionable at this time. I’ve seen some conflicting forecasts. Some forecast models take most of the heavier rainfall out to sea. What about strong winds? At this time, weather forecasters are not expecting any widespread wind issues. However, whenever remnants of a tropical cyclone approach the area, isolated storms containing strong winds are possible depending on atmospheric conditions. An approaching cold front should bring us another chance of showers/storms on Tuesday. It is expected to be warm and quite humid out ahead of the cold front. Behind the cold front, it will cool down a bit and the humidity will be lower. That’s it for now. For all the moms out there, Happy Mother’s Day!

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