Archive for August 19, 2012

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPS BRINGING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS… AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE DEEP TROPICS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED

Just a brief update on our current weather situation…. The threat of severe weather has diminished here in Hampton Roads. In situations like this when we have a frontal system over the area, areas to the south and east of the front will have the best chance of severe weather. In this case, that was areas of North Carolina. That is where the air is most unstable as it is warmer and humidity levels are higher. Cool temperatures and clouds north of the front have inhibited the severe weather threat…. The weather map this today (Sunday) features a large upper-level low pressure area just east of James Bay in Canada. The associated trough over the Eastern portion of the U.S. will create unsettled weather the next couple days. Low pressure developing along the frontal boundary will move offshore on Monday but other waves of low pressure may affect us into Tuesday. The computer models are having a tough time with this weather pattern so predicting when and where it will rain will be very difficult. The uncertainty in the forecast continues well into the week as the broad trough continues to affect our weather… What about the tropics? The Atlantic Basin features Hurricane Gordon which is now a category two hurricane. The water is not that warm in the area where this storm is so it proves that there are other factors that are just as important to a hurricanes strength as is warm ocean water. Of course, the water cannot be too cool but it obviously doesn’t have to be near 80 degrees which has always been widely believed. That is one reason I absolutely love the subject of meteorology…. There are still so many things that we don’t fully understand about weather. You wonder whether we will ever be able to program a computer model to accurately predict the movement and intensity of a tropical cyclone. The atmosphere is very complex and I think it is impossible to consider every single variable. An area of disturbed weather in the deep tropics may become our next tropical cyclone, but this system is way out in the Eastern North Atlantic so we have plenty of time to watch it. Anyway, that’s it for now. Please watch the skies today for any severe weather that may develop.

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