Archive for August 5, 2012

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER MAY BE ON WAY… TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS STRUGGLING DUE TO SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTERING ITS CIRCULATION… TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE MAY FACE THE SAME CONDITIONS IN A FEW DAYS

I love to watch the sky on days like today, when we are under the influence of the Bermuda High. The sky is a deep blue with large puffy white cumulus clouds passing by. Sometimes in patterns like this, those clouds build to a point where they create showers and thunderstorms. With the high pressure in control today (Sunday), rain chances are expected to remain relatively low. However, there may be a shower or storm over some areas. Any rain could be heavy as there is a large amount of water vapor in the air, hence the dew point in the low to mid seventies. Rain chances are expected to ramp up on Monday as a cold front destabilizes the atmosphere. Although the front is not especially strong and will actually be weakening over time, it should be enough to cause showers and storms which is why the National Weather Service has raised rainfall chances to 60% on Monday. Rain chances will remain slightly elevated for a few days as the front is expected to stall somewhere close by. The front will eventually dissipate which is typical for this time of year… Regarding the tropics, Tropical Storm Ernesto is battling wind shear and dry air, which has become entrained in its circulation. What about its track? Many times, when storms remain weak, they take a more westerly track vice west-northwesterly track. This is because storms that are weaker do not extend as high into the atmosphere and are less affected by the steering flow that would move them further north. So, there is some uncertainty as to where Ernesto will eventually end up. As I said in my Saturday post, anyone along the Gulf Coast or on the Yucatan Peninsula needs to monitor this storm. Florence may encounter the same problems that Ernesto is experiencing now according to the computer models. Florence developed at a higher latitude so it may be more influenced by the westerlies. You should monitor this storm but forecasters have plenty of time to watch it. That’s it for now. Have a great day.

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