Archive for October, 2011

WET WEATHER IS ON THE WAY AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES UP THE COAST… WILL WE CLEAR OUT IN TIME FOR NEXT WEEKEND?

As the high pressure system that brought a wonderful weekend to the Mid-Atlantic states moves offshore, a weak low pressure system is going to move up the East Coast. The moisture associated with this low should bring us showers beginning on Tuesday and the wet weather may last all the way through Thursday. The computer models differ on how fast this system will move away later in the week but for now, forecasters think that we should see improving conditions by Friday. This system has brought flooding rain to parts of the Florida peninsula over the weekend. The National Hurricane Center was watching this for possible tropical development but they have lowered the chances to 10% as of Monday morning. Speaking of the tropics, there are no areas of concern in the tropical Atlantic right now. That could change in the next few days, however. No real cool weather is in sight for our part of the country. What’s going on with the drought in Texas? Heavy rain has fallen in the central portion of the state but have basically missed the eastern areas of the state. That’s it for now. Have a great day.

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AFTER A NEARLY PERFECT WEEKEND, AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER LIES AHEAD FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD… FORECASTERS ARE UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW WET IT WILL BE

The sprawling high pressure system that has brought fantastic weather this weekend will be losing its grip on our area starting Monday and by Tuesday, rain chances will be increasing. Why? Well, an area of disturbed weather is growing well to our south around Florida. Low pressure is expected to develop and slowly move up the Eastern Seaboard. Will this low pressure area be tropical or sub-tropical? It is still too early to determine that but either way, I think we will see some decent rainfall from this system beginning Tuesday and possibly lasting into Thursday. It won’t rain all the time during this period, but showers will be possible at any time. There may even be thunder and lightning if we get enough instability to move north into the region. Computer models differ in the intensity of this  system so forecasters aren’t yet sure about the coastal impacts it will have. Although the cloudiness from this system may first show up today (Sunday), forecasters don’t think that Hampton Roads will see any rainfall until Tuesday. Where the rainfall sets up and how much will fall are not easy to predict in a situation like this. As what’s left of Philippe moves away into the Eastern North Atlantic, there are no other areas of concern aside from the aforementioned one near Florida. Temperatures have risen slightly over the past few days and they are expected to remain about the same over the next few days. That’s it for now. Have a great day.

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DRY WEATHER CONTINUES AND THERE WILL BE A SLOW WARMING TREND… WET WEATHER SEEMS MORE AND MORE LIKELY FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK

As my headline stated yesterday (Friday), high pressure is guaranteeing great weather this weekend. Temperatures will be absolutely perfect for most of us and will trend upwards a bit as we head towards Monday. This is a rather large high pressure system and will be very slow to move away. South of this high, low pressure is eventually going to develop (probably near the Florida coastline) and this system combined with the return flow of moisture around the high, may bring us some wet weather by the middle of next week. Forecasters aren’t certain as to how much rain we will receive. I checked the Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts at the HPC site and they show that an area just east of the state of Florida may receive a lot of rainfall during this upcoming week. It will be interesting to see how far north this system is able to spread its moisture. I saw a report on the Weather Channel yesterday that there is also concern of the low pressure system becoming tropical in nature. That sometimes happens when you have large high pressure systems centered over the Northeast at this time of year. So, enjoy the beautiful weekend…. The only storm in the tropical Atlantic is Tropical Storm Philippe, which weakened since yesterday. The storm is moving E-NE rapidly out into the central North Atlantic. That’s it for now. Have a great day.

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HIGH PRESSURE GUARANTEES A FANTASTIC WEEKEND IN HAMPTON ROADS… THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WON’T BE UNTIL TUESDAY AT THE EARLIEST

The weather in October can be absolutely perfect. The heat and humidity of summer are basically gone and winter’s chill and storminess has yet to begin. Some of the nicest stretches of weather occur in October as expansive high pressure areas sometimes cover large portions of the North American continent. Oh, it can be stormy as there is a secondary uptick in severe weather sometimes in October and early November as the different  air masses begin to clash again. The increasingly longer nights make for some very cool mornings. Leaves begin to change color which makes this month a great time to sight see in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern states. One such high pressure system will literally guarantee that we will see abundant sunshine throughout the weekend. The high will move offshore next week which may allow some wet weather to move into Hampton Roads. It may actually get very wet next week, but I’ll have more on that in my weekend posts… The only action in the tropical Atlantic is Hurricane Philippe which is picking up speed as it heads harmlessly away into the North Atlantic.

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TEMPERATURES DROP TO LEVELS NOT SEEN SINCE LAST SPRING… A LOW PRESSURE AREA TO OUR NORTH WILL CAUSE SOME CLOUDINESS AT TIMES… THE LOW MOVES AWAY BY MID-WEEK AND THE TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE… OVERALL, A NICE WEEK LIES AHEAD

To me, the weather Saturday was invigorating. I opened my windows and enjoyed the cool breeze. The low pressure system to our north caused lots of clouds in the area and my neighborhood actually received a shower late the day. Not much rain fell (about a tenth of an inch), but it is amazing how the atmosphere can squeeze out precipitation even when dew points were quite low. All it takes is a very cold pocket of air in the upper-atmosphere to move overhead. This destabilizes the air since cold air is heavier than warm air. Also, cold air cannot hold as much water vapor as warm air so it acts like squeezing a sponge to get those last drops of water out of it. We may see another shower here and there on Sunday, but the chances aren’t that great… less than 20%. Sunday and Monday will be on the cool side and every once in a while, it will be a little on the breezy side. The low over the Northeast is expected to move away and should be gone by mid-week. Temperatures will slowly come up to more seasonal levels. No widespread significant precipitation is expected this week and the dry weather may extend through next weekend… Hurricane Ophelia became a category 4 storm on Saturday, which is quite amazing considering that it attained this strength far to the north away from the warmest waters of the tropical Atlantic Ocean. It was at 32 degrees latitude which is well outside of the deep tropics. Bermuda lucked out since the storm passed far enough to the east to spare them the hurricane conditions that could have swept over the island had the storm been 100 miles to the west. Southeastern Newfoundland may get quite a storm depending on how strong Ophelia is when she gets to that part of the world. Tropical Storm Philippe is expected to keep moving west (and maybe even west-southwest) before it makes the turn to the north later in the period. That’s it for now. Have a great day.

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