THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES COULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM ON TUESDAY… DETAILS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE AND INTENSITY STILL NEED TO BE WORKED OUT… THE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WILL BE COLD AND BREEZY AT TIMES

A major winter storm seems likely for the Mid and North Atlantic States on Tuesday. However, the exact details of where the heaviest snow will be and what areas will see rain mixed in (or possibly all rain) need to be worked out. This storm is really going to be a major forecast challenge as there are so many factors that have to be considered with this system. Here’s what forecasters think is going to happen. A low pressure area is going to develop in the Northern Gulf of Mexico on Monday. This cyclogenesis will be caused by an upper level disturbance moving eastward across the deep south. The low will intensify as it moves northeast towards the Carolina coastline. This system will spread a wintry mix of precipitation across the Tennessee Valley. The exact track of this system will determine what type of precipitation Hampton Roads receives. If the low tracks further east, snow will be more likely but if it tracks too far offshore, then dry air could reduce precipitation amounts, especially to our north and west. If the low tracks further west, then warmer air will be drawn into the system causing rain instead of snow. (See my Weather Fact on why snow is so hard to predict here in Hampton Roads).

Let’s back up to the weekend. A large polar vortex to our north will keep us on the chilly side this weekend and a developing low offshore will maintain breezy conditions throughout the weekend. Wind speeds should lessen on Monday. Some parts of Eastern VA and NE NC received a little light snow and rain mix overnight Friday night. No major problems were reported.

I’ll have an update on Sunday. Thanks for reading.

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