Archive for October, 2010

THE WEEKEND WILL BE GREAT WITH SUNDAY BEING A LITTLE WARMER THAN SATURDAY… THE GREAT WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY

The frontal system that moved through Hampton Roads this past week brought eight tenths of an inch of rain to my backyard. Some areas got more and some got less. The system that caused the rain and embedded thunderstorms intensified as it moved northeast. New England saw high winds and heavy rain from this system. Accumulating snow fell in some of the higher elevations in the Northeast. The low will pull away slowly bringing improving conditions up there today. Our northwest winds are being caused by the pressure gradient between the aforementioned departing low pressure area and a high pressure system to our west. A westerly wind will bring warmer temperatures on Sunday. The next chance of rain is not until Wednesday. The tropics are quiet now as Paula has dissipated. I’ll have an update on Sunday.

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IT MAY NOT BE THIS WARM UNTIL NEXT SPRING… COOLER WEATHER IS ON THE WAY… RAIN CHANCES RETURN THIS THURSDAY

The record high temperature for Monday (Oct 11th) is 88 degrees. High temperatures will be close to that record and it is highly likely that it will not be this warm until next spring. A cold front will drop southward but it probably won’t move through until Wednesday. A low pressure trough will be swinging through the region on Thursday and Friday which may bring us a chance of showers. Forecasters aren’t sure how much rain we will see from this system. Right now the chance of rain is around 40%. An area of disturbed weather near Central America has a decent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone. Well, that’s it for now.

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THE WEATHER PATTERN IS QUITE BENIGN BUT THAT IS NOT UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR… OTTO RACES E-NE WHILE ANOTHER DISTURBED AREA IN THE CARIBBEAN SHOWS SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT NEAR CENTRAL AMERICA

There’s really not much to talk about since we are in a very benign weather pattern. A pattern like this is very typical for early to mid-October. There are several reasons for the quiet weather but it can be attributed to the decrease in tropical cyclone development, the less amplified jet stream configuration, drier air encompassing much of the North American continent, and the more stable atmosphere caused by the lower angle of the sun and the increasingly shorter daylight period. We are not yet at the time of year when the difference in air masses causes the intense extra-tropical storms. That will be happening soon, however. I would like to talk about the status of our precipitation totals for the year. ORF’s 2010 total is actually at the normal annual average for an entire year… a little over 45 inches!. That means that if we see absolutely no precipitation for the remainder of the year (which is highly unlikely), 2010 would be considered a normal year precipitation wise. What about the next few days? There’s only a slight chance of a shower on Tuesday or Tuesday night. Temperatures are going to be very warm for this time of year, especially on Monday (Columbus Day). Temperatures will trend downward by mid-week. What about the tropics? Tropical Storm Otto is racing E-NE and will probably be considered extra-tropical soon. An area of disturbed weather in the Caribbean near Central America may become the next tropical storm. I’ll have an update on Monday.

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THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL FEATURE WARM SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR COOL NIGHTS… HURRICANE OTTO MOVES HARMLESSLY OUT INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC

The weather pattern is fairly typical for October. A high pressure ridge will keep our weather dry for the next few days. As the headline states, the days will be warm and sunny and the nights will be clear and cool. Low relative humidity allows the temperatures to drop at night. What I like about this situation is that we could be happy about a dry forecast since the drought has been officially declared over. The copious amount of rainfall that fell several days ago litterally wiped out the drought… Hurricane Otto is accelerating E-NE and poses no threat to any land area. When is the next chance of rain? Forecasters are saying that a frontal system might bring a slight chance of a shower on Tuesday but for the next 5 days, there really is very little chance of significant rain here in Hampton Roads. So, enjoy the great weather this weekend and I’ll have an update on Sunday.

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JUST WHAT WE NEEDED, MORE RAIN… LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST BROUGHT US A WET AND COOL SUNDAY… RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE LOW PULLS SLOWLY AWAY

Doesn’t it seem that when we don’t need the rain here in Hampton Roads, that’s when we seem to get it? How many times during extended periods of dry weather mother nature can’t even muster up a shower just to wet the ground? After the incredible deluge that we had last week, an additional 1.30 inches of rain fell in my backyard on Saturday. The rain resulted from an upper level disturbance moving in from the west, which caused a surface low pressure to develop just off the coastal Carolina’s along the frontal boundary that lies offshore.  Due to the northeasterly wind-flow and cloud cover, temperatures were held down on Sunday. The low will slowly move northeastward but clearing may be slow to occur due to the upper-level disturbance remaining close by. Temperatures this week should be very fall-like.

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