Archive for May, 2009

A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PLAYS HAVOC WITH FORECASTERS… WHO WILL GET RAIN AND HOW MUCH WILL FALL ARE THE DIFFICULT QUESTIONS… THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A frontal boundary that has basically become stationary over Virginia is making for a very difficult forecast for Hampton Roads meteorologists. Shortwaves or weak waves of low pressure are expected to ride along the front which will cause the front to move back and forth through our area. If you are north of the front, it will be cooler with a chance of rain and if you are south of the front it will be warm with more sun and there will be a potential for showers and thunderstorms, some of which may even be severe. Some areas are going to receive heavy amounts of rain but pinpointing who gets the heavy rainers is nearly impossible with a weather system like this. Based on what I’ve read online and seen on television, the heaviest rain will be in areas to our north and west, but any area can see a heavy shower/thunderstorm through Tuesday. Not only is it difficult to determine which areas will see the most rain, it is also difficult to determine the timing of the rainfall. The timing of the shortwaves has to be considered along with the time of day. When will this unsettled period end? Probably either Wednesday or Thursday, as it stands right now. As I’ve repeatedly stated in my previous posts, some parts of are area are well below normal in the rainfall department this year, so a good soaking would be great news for SE VA. Please monitor your local media for any severe weather updates.

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A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MAKE FORECASTING RAIN CHANCES VERY DIFFICULT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS… TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS

A very slow moving cold front is expected to stall just to our north and west this weekend. Shortwaves or weak areas of low pressure are expected to move along this frontal boundary. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop but there is uncertainty as to how widespread they will be. Also, it’s very difficult for forecasters to predict what parts of the area (if any) will see rain. As I write this, the skies are clear but clouds should pop up as instability increases this afternoon and the frontal systems moves a little closer. The lion’s share of rain associated with this frontal system should fall well to our west. Rain chances should stick around through Monday. I’m hoping that we could get a good downpour as our rainfall deficit is now around 4 inches. I cannot wait until I could say that we are above normal. With the fading of La Nina and the possibility of an El Nino developing in the Pacific, our rainfall potential may increase later this year. Let’s keep our fingers crossed. I’ll have an update on Sunday.

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